Are event predetermined or probable?

It is arrogant and presumptuous to profess a whole hearted belief in something without sufficient reason. But when we consider how certain we can be about the things we believe, we must consider how certain we can be about anything.

Some have argued that the outcome of events is not absolutely predetermined beyond any alternative. They claim that many different possibilities may result from an event, and as to whether any particular result will occur can only be determined by probabilities. So it is not possible to assert total faith in coming events. We can only assert probabilities. This weakens absolute faith in the deductions of logic and raises some doubt about everything. For in such a view, the truth of a proposition can only be determined within the certainty of probabilities. And nothing is absolutely certain.

But I think that probabilities are only a measure of our ignorance. For example, if we see a car going down main street in a certain town, we might ask whether it is true or false that the car will turn down a particular side street. Without any further information, we can only estimate the probability that the car will turn down this road based on the percentage rate of other cars we see turn down that road. And we might be tempted to say that the proposition that he will turn down that street is only, say, 10% true, 90% false. However, if we know that the man driving the car also lives in that town, then it becomes more probable that he will turn down that street instead of through town. If we know that he lives on that side of main street, it becomes more probable that he will turn down that street. If we know that he live on that street, it becomes even more probable. If we know that he lives on the first block of that street, it becomes even more probable. If we know that he is on his way home, it becomes even more probable, etc. So probabilities cannot describe the nature of a proposition because the value of this probability changes with information that the observer has. Ultimately it is either 100% true that the car will turn down this street, or it is 100% false.

Also, it should be noted that probabilities are derived from observing the average of individual events that do occur with absolute certainty. Probabilities are the comparison of those events which absolutely happen to those events that absolutely do not happen. If we cannot measure with absolute certainty whether an event happened or not, then we cannot determine the probabilities. Probabilities cannot exist without absolute certainly. But absolute certainty can exist without probabilities. So we cannot say that the measure of a proposition's truth can continuously range from 0 to 100% true. For ultimately, the proposition will be determined as either totally true or totally false. We can use probabilities to estimate our certainty based on our information which may change from person to person and from time to time.

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